Tuesday’s match between unbeaten Benfica and struggling Juventus will determine which team advances to the round of 16, while the other will be fighting for its Champions League life.
Juventus, who were humiliated by Maccabi Haifa their last time out and are now five points behind the top two teams in Group H, are on the verge of being eliminated when they arrive in Lisbon. If their hosts defeat the Serie A team a second time in as many weeks, they will guarantee progression.
In addition to putting Benfica on the verge of advancing to the Champions League knockout stages once more, consecutive 1-1 draws with co-leaders Paris Saint-Germain have also established them as a potential squad to be wary of in the last 16.
The Eagles held PSG in the French capital as Kylian Mbappe and Joao Mario traded goals from the penalty spot in a closely contested game, extending their unbeaten start to the season to 17 games. They are now favourites to complete the task at home after winning 2-1 in Turin on the second matchday of Group H.
After defeating Primeira Liga title rivals Porto on Friday, Roger Schmidt’s team increased their unbeaten streak to 19, and Rafa Silva’s second-half goal separated them from their 10-man opponents to put them six points ahead of the pack. That came after a week earlier, when Schmidt named a significantly altered starting lineup in the Taca de Portugal shootout victory over third-tier Caldas.
Returning to the continental stage, Benfica will secure their spot in the post-World Cup action with a victory on Tuesday, or even a draw if Haifa is unable to defeat PSG. They are therefore expected to advance to the knockout stage for just the second time in consecutive seasons.
A stable team has contributed to this success, and the two-time European champions’ longest Champions League winless streak was over ten years ago: This season, Schmidt has changed his starting lineup just once in Europe, the fewest of any team.
If having such consistency wasn’t psychologically advantageous enough, the Lisbon club has won all three of their previous home matches against Juventus, scoring twice in each of those victories.
After losing 2-1 to Benfica last month in Turin after blowing an early lead, Juventus has only won one of their seven European encounters with the Portuguese team. Benfica were unquestionably the superior team.
Then, Max Allegri’s team defeated Maccabi Haifa at home, but their most recent trip to Israel ended in a 2-0 loss to a team that had dropped all nine of their games during the group stage.
The Bianconeri will be unable to advance to the round of 16 if they lose on Tuesday, which would be their fourth defeat in their last six games against the best teams in Europe. Should they fail once more, they could still finish third and advance to the Europa League, but Allegri knows that outcome is unacceptable to both the supporters and his employers.
Juventus was facing group stage elimination for the first time since 2013, when they were coached by Antonio Conte. Despite their star waning in recent years, Juventus had made it to the knockout stages for eight straight seasons entering the current season.
In the final moments of Friday’s rout of Empoli at the Allianz Arena, Adrien Rabiot scored a brace to help his team add a four-goal victory to last week’s victory in the Turin derby. Recent events on Italian soil, however, have at least calmed the choppy waters around Allegri and his much-criticized team.
Even though the 1996 Champions League champions are not among the top six teams in Serie A, they have at least helped to shore up the season’s already fragile confidence. After facing Benfica, Juventus will host PSG and Inter at the beginning of November.
No other team in the Champions League has been using as few players as Roger Schmidt’s Benfica (18), and also the Austrian coach’s preference for consistency should lead him to select a familiar starting lineup on Tuesday.
Morato is still out injured, and Julian Draxler has joined him after suffering a thigh injury against Porto. However, winger David Neres, who scored the game-winning goal in the first meeting, recently made a comeback and played as a substitute on Friday.
Alejandro Grimaldo of Benfica, who has made four assists more than Joao Cancelo (six) since the start of last season, starts on the left side of the home team’s back four while Alexander Bah and Gilberto compete for the spot on the right.
For the Eagles in Europe this year, Enzo Fernandez has been the midfielder who has completed the most passes, made the most tackles, and frequently regained possession.
Meanwhile, Juventus will be without former Benfica star Angel Di Maria once more, and Leandro Paredes, another countryman, is now sidelined until next month with a thigh injury sustained in Empoli. The absent defensive players for the visitors are Bremer and Mattia Di Sciglio.
After scoring on Friday, Weston McKennie and Moise Kean hope to keep their positions; Arkadiusz Milik, who scored the opening goal against Benfica last month, wants to replace the latter. Paul Pogba and Federico Chiesa are both close to returns but won’t be risked just yet. Despite only scoring once in his first four Champions League games, star forward Dusan Vlahovic starts up front.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Silva, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Enzo Fernandez, Luis; Mario, Rafa, Neres; Ramos
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, Rugani; Cuadrado, McKennie, Locatelli, Rabiot, Kostic; Milik, Dusan Vlahovic
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